Take Five: School’s (not) out for summer

LONDON (Reuters) – The peak holiday season is gearing up, but school’s not quite out for summer in financial markets.

With the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan meeting, the first snapshot of July business activity, earnings and a Spanish election on the calendar, there’s lots going on.

Here’s a look at the week ahead in markets from Ira Iosebashvili in New York, Kevin Buckland in Tokyo, Naomi Rovnick, Alun John and Dhara Ranasinghe in London.

1/ WAIT NO MORE

And just like that, the next Federal Reserve meeting is right around the corner. U.S. inflation is cooling but markets expect one more rate hike on July 26.

The more interesting question is whether Chair Jerome Powell will signal the Fed is more confident inflation can cool further while growth stays resilient, meaning the most aggressive rate hiking cycle in decades is nearing an end.

Signs that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates much further would, in theory, keep the wind in the sails of a buoyant Wall Street, while tumble will likely continue. 

Also in focus are earnings from some of the massive tech and growth stocks that have led markets higher this year. Among them are Microsoft (NASDAQ:) and Alphabet (NASDAQ:), which report on July 25.

2/ SUMMER READING

Before they go on their summer break, ECB policymakers have a well-flagged rate hike to deliver. That will come on Thursday, with the key deposit rate tipped to rise a quarter point to 3.75%.

ECB chief Christine Lagarde will no doubt be pressed for clarity on what happens in September, and economists are divided over whether there will be another rate increase or pause.

Note, hawk Klaas Knot says any move beyond July is “by no means a certainty”.

Underlying inflation, a key focus for the ECB, remains high, but economic growth is weakening. The previously resilient services sector barely grew in June.

The July PMI snapshot of business activity, out globally in coming days, should provide some further insights, as should the ECB’s latest bank lending survey.

Rate-setters’ summer reading list just got longer.

3/ LOST IN TRANSLATION

The Bank of Japan wants to promote communication with markets, but something may have been lost in translation. 

Comments from top rate-setters have tied investors in knots before a keenly anticipated two-day policy meeting starting on Thursday. 

Governor Kazuo Ueda’s message of “steady as she goes” on stimulus, including yield curve control (YCC), was seen, by some, to have been undone by recent remarks by deputy Shinichi Uchida.

Uchida says he “strongly acknowledges” YCC’s negative impact, which hawks took as a hint of an imminent raising of the 0.5% ceiling for 10-year bond yields.

Ueda then again backed continued easing in its current form and data on Friday showed inflation may have peaked.

The benchmark yield has swung from 0.4% to a four-month high of 0.485% over the past two weeks, with the market dividing itself sharply into two camps. That creates plenty of opportunity for another jolting BOJ surprise.

4/ STOP: IT’S EARNINGS SEASON

European quarterly earnings are starting to trickle in. The season will be a crucial one, with the share index up about 8% year to date. 

The rally has sputtered in July ahead of what Barclays describes as a “make it or break it” quarterly reporting season.

Second-quarter earnings are expected to decrease 9.2% from a year earlier, according to I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv, with aggregate earnings likely to be weighed down by poor performance from energy companies.

Stocks rallied earlier this year as investors, who were mostly bearish about Europe, switched their positions as global growth continued to defy expectations.

That is a macroeconomic story rather than an earnings narrative, which makes European equities vulnerable to companies missing profit targets.

A better than expected outcome, on the other hand, could fuel another bull run.     

5/ SPAIN VOTES

Spain votes in a snap election on Sunday. Polls forecast the conservative People’s Party will defeat the ruling Socialist Workers’ Party but will likely need support from the far-right Vox to form a government.

Key for markets is how quickly the winner can form a government – it’s a cliche that equity markets hate uncertainty – but it’s said for a reason.

Also in focus is whether pressure on the main parties to cut taxes or increase spending worsens Spain’s finances.

High debt above 100% of GDP, a slowing economy and tighter EU fiscal rules coming into force in 2024 are concentrating minds.

Stock-pickers are also keeping an eye on the energy sector, where the two main parties have different priorities, and financials, with the outlook for Spain’s temporary banking levy in doubt.