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Weekly Indicators: Watching Short Leading Indicators Vs. More Interest Rate Carnage

Purpose

I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data

This Week In Petroleum Gasoline Section – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Long Leading Indicators Positive Neutral Negative
Corporate bonds
10 year Treasury
10 yr-2 yr Treasury
10 yr-3mo Treasury
2 yr – Fed funds X
Mortgage rates
Purchase Mtg. Apps.
Refi Mtg Apps.
Real Estate Loans
Real M1
Real M2
Corporate Profits
Adj. Fin. Conditions Index x
Leverage Index
Totals: 0 5 9

Short Leading Indicators Positive Neutral Negative
Credit Spread
Miller Score
St. L. Fin. Stress Index
US$ Broad
US$ Major currencies
Total commodities
Industrial commodities
Stock prices
Regional Fed New Orders
Initial jobless claims
Temporary staffing
Gas prices
Oil prices
Gas Usage X
Totals: 4 4 6

Coincident Indicators Positive Neutral Negative
Weekly Econ. Index
Open Table
Redbook
Rail
Harpex
BDI
Steel
Tax Withholding
TED
LIBOR
Financial Cond. Index
Totals: 5 2 3

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