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The Fed Has Credibility, The Economy Is Resilient: How Did That Happen?

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Let’s take a minute to look at the May employment report and try to decide what happened that caused Wall Street to be set back on its heels and for so many to suddenly think that

U3 of more than 0.2%

Month-to-month changes in the unemployment rate of 0.2% or more (Haver Analytics and FAO Economics)

recession signals

Recession signaling (Haver Analytics & FAO Economics )

U3 Freq distrib

Frequency distribution of monthly U3 changes (Haver Analytics and FAO Economics)

U3 compared to prev 6-mo

Over of six months of U3 data, the number of months that the current U3 rate exceeds (Haver Analytics & FAO Economics)

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