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Dilution Factors Aside, Norwegian Offers Growth Momentum (NYSE:NCLH)

Thesis

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, LTD. (NYSE:NCLH) endured significant challenges during the pandemic, resulting in a substantial debt burden that will affect its future net income margin. For the purpose of this projection spanning from 2023

Revenue Net Income Plus Taxes Plus D&A Plus Interest
2023 8,620.00 $357.17 $349.05 $1,364.49 $2,170.46
2024 9,420.80 $471.04 $481.75 $1,591.52 $2,472.36
2025 10,295.99 $514.80 $526.50 $1,739.37 $2,702.05
2026 11,252.49 $562.62 $575.42 $1,900.96 $2,953.07
2027 12,297.84 $614.89 $628.87 $2,077.56 $3,227.41
2028 13,440.31 $672.02 $687.29 $2,270.56 $3,527.23
^Final EBITA^

D&A Projection Interest Projection
2023 1,015.436 805.97
2024 1,109.770 880.84
2025 1,212.868 962.68
2026 1,325.543 1,052.11
2027 1,448.686 1,149.85
2028 1,583.269 1,256.67

TABLE OF ASSUMPTIONS
(Current data)
Assumptions Part 1
Equity Value 15.20
Debt Value 13,757.50
Cost of Debt 4.87%
Tax Rate 2.27%
10y Treassury 4.22%
Beta 1.96
Market Return 10.50%
Cost of Equity 16.53%
Assumptions Part 2
EBIT 1,541.20
Tax 19.80
D&A 844.00
CapEx 2,431.70
Capex Margin 29.00%
Assumption Part 3
Net Income 851.10
Interest 670.30
Tax 19.80
D&A 844.00
Ebitda 2,385.20
D&A Margin 11.78%
Interest Expense Margin 9.35%

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