If delays and disruption over the summer weren’t enough, a potential government shutdown could bring more frustration for travelers.
With air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration (TSA) staff required to work without pay, workers calling in sick could be a big problem—as it was during the last shutdown.
The White House, outlining some of the potential impacts of shutdown, warned that travelers could face significant delays.
“Air traffic controllers and TSA officers would have to work without pay, potentially leading to significant delays and longer wait time for travelers at airports across the country like there were during previous shutdowns,” it said in a release earlier this week.
The previous shutdown lasted a record 35 days from Dec. 22, 2018 to Jan. 25, 2019, but early on its impact on the sector was limited. However, as it dragged into January and workers faced missing out on a second paycheck, things quickly worsened.
On Jan. 20, 2019, the final Sunday of the shutdown, the TSA’s unscheduled absence rate reached a high of 10%—up from 3.1% on the same day the previous year. The agency said many employees cited financial limitations as the reason for being absent.
The absences led to longer lines at airport security and some airports, including Miami International, closed terminals to cope with staff shortages.
By the final days of the shutdown, airports were thrown into chaos, most notably at LaGuardia in New York where a ground stop was ordered as sickouts increased. The delays caused by the absence of 10 air traffic controllers on Jan. 25 added to the pressure on Congress to reach a compromise, which it did that day.
While Congress has until Oct. 1 to settle on a government budget to avoid a shutdown, the signs aren’t promising.
Air traffic controllers and TSA staff would be paid retroactively, but how long they may be willing to work without pay this time is the big unknown.
Despite the absences, and longer wait times at airports, flight delays weren’t abnormally high last time. During the record 35-day shutdown, 16.3% of flights by U.S. airlines were delayed, according to data from flight tracker FlightAware. Over the same period the following year, 14.7% of flights were delayed. Between Dec. 23, 2022 and Jan. 25, 2023 26% of flights were delayed.
One more thing to note is that the last shutdown began just as the busy holiday travel season was getting started. Airports are typically less busy in early October, but the number of passengers passing through checkpoints has been tracking above 2019 levels for much of September.
There are other, less conspicuous, consequences that could arise from a lengthy shutdown. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said Wednesday that a shutdown would halt crucial training for air traffic controllers amid a shortage.
“We now have 2,600 air traffic controllers in training. A government shutdown would stop that training. Even a shutdown lasting a few weeks could set us back by months or more because of how complex that training is,” he said in front of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee.
The U.S. Travel Association estimated that a potential shutdown would cost the U.S. travel economy $140 million a day—more than the estimated $100 million daily impact in the 2018/2019 shutdown.
A shutdown would hamper the U.S. air travel system with more flight delays, longer screening lines, and setbacks to modernization plans, it said. Other travel issues including lengthy visa interview wait times and passport processing delays would “further constrain travel growth and spending,” the organization added.
Write to Callum Keown at callum.keown@barrons.com
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