The stock market will close early on Monday ahead of Independence Day and remain closed on Tuesday. Investors will return from the long weekend to a busy few days of economic releases.
The highlights will be the latest data on the U.S. labor market. On Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Economists’ consensus call is for 9.9 million job openings on the last business day of May, which would be down slightly from April.
Then it will be Jobs Friday. The BLS is expected to report a gain of 212,500 nonfarm payrolls in June, following an increase of 339,000 in May. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 3.7%. Average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% month over month, matching May’s pace.
Other releases this week will include the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s mid-June monetary-policy meeting on Wednesday. The Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for June on Monday and the Services equivalent on Thursday.
Monday 7/3
The Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange have shortened regular trading hours, ending at 1 p.m.
The Census Bureau reports construction spending data for May. Consensus estimate is for spending to rise 0.4% month over month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.92 trillion.
The Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for June. Economists forecast a 47 reading, roughly even with the May data. The index has had seven straight readings below 50, indicating the U.S. is in a manufacturing recession. But continued strength in the services sector has lifted the overall economy up.
Tuesday 7/4
Equity and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Independence Day.
The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its monetary-policy decision. Traders are pricing in a 25% chance that the RBA raises its key short-term interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, to 4.35%. The central bank has raised rates 10 times since April 2022 for a total increase of four percentage points. With regional neighbor New Zealand having entered a recession, Australia’s chances of dodging its second recession since 1991 are 50/50, according to Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the nation’s largest lender.
Wednesday 7/5
The Federal Open Market Committee releases the minutes of its mid-June monetary-policy meeting.
Thursday 7/6
ADP releases its National Employment Report for June. Economists see a gain of 250,000 private-sector jobs, following a 278,000 increase in May. The leisure and hospitality sector continues to lead gains while manufacturing and finance shed workers in May.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The consensus call is for 9.9 million job openings on the last business day of May, slightly less than in April. Despite falling by nearly two million from the peak of 12 million in March 2022, job openings remain historically elevated. There are currently 1.65 job openings for every unemployed person, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has stressed that he would like to see that ratio approaching 1:1.
The ISM releases its Services PMI for June. Expectations are for a 50.8 reading, a tick higher than the May figure. The index has had only one reading below the expansionary level of 50 in the past three years.
Friday 7/7
The BLS releases the jobs report for June. The consensus estimate is for the economy to add 212,500 nonfarm payrolls, after a 339,000 increase in May. The unemployment rate is seen remaining unchanged at a historically low 3.7%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% month over month, matching the May data. Jobs growth has surprised to the upside nearly every month in the past year, sometimes by more than double estimates, as in January.
Write to Nicholas Jasinski at nicholas.jasinski@barrons.com
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