Nvidia
stock has more than tripled this year but it can’t seem to break above the $500 mark. Even another stellar set of quarterly earnings couldn’t make it happen.
Something is holding it back—high expectations maybe after its incredible run. But there’s also a bigger factor: China.
After closing above $500 for the first time on Monday,
Nvidia
(ticker: NVDA) shares were moving further away from that milestone in Friday’s shortened trading session, down 1.3% to $480.99.
That’s after Reuters reported that the chip maker was delaying the launch of one of its new artificial-intelligence chips destined for China until the first quarter of next year. The delayed chip, the H20, has been designed to comply with U.S. export rules, the report added. It was expected to launch as early as Nov. 16. Nvidia declined to comment to Barron’s.
The Commerce Department said in October that it was tightening rules announced in 2022 that target China’s access to AI and other advanced technologies. The latest rules focus on the most high-tech chips, like Nvidia’s, that are now banned for export without a license.
The company alluded to its China problems in its third-quarter earnings Tuesday. Sales to China and other countries affected by the U.S. government’s export restrictions are expected to “decline significantly,” Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress said. But the shortfall would be more than offset by strong demand in other regions, she added.
The stock has flirted with the $500 level, reaching it in intraday trading on several occasions, but has only closed above it once. It settled at $504.09 on Monday. That move was in anticipation of the chip maker’s earnings the following day.
But a 206% revenue jump and current quarter guidance that beat expectations weren’t enough to keep it there. After the stock’s epic rally, the bar is high and risks like China are more likely to become a problem for investors.
Wall Street doesn’t seem to be hung up on the $500 mark, though. It has loftier goals in mind. Analysts covering the stock have an average price target of $666.29, implying a 37% upside to Wednesday’s closing price.
Write to Callum Keown at callum.keown@barrons.com
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