Investors scour markets for recession signs. Here’s what this closely watched credit gauge says.

Investors are worried about an economic slowdown, but the corporate credit market is not screaming recession.

Spreads on corporate bonds with low investment-grade ratings have not widened in line with the rise seen ahead of past economic contractions in 2001-2002, 2007-2008 and 2020, said John Silvia, founder of Dynamic Economic Strategy, in a research note Wednesday. He was referencing spreads over 10-year U.S. Treasurys for bonds rated Baa by Moody’s Investors Service, the note shows.

Credit…