Fed lending survey has perfect record when it comes to foreshadowing recessions

The Federal Reserve’s quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey released Monday showed that banks tightened lending standards in the first quarter and plan to keep tightening. That’s an ominous sign for the economy, a top Wall Street strategist said.

“Tightening lending standards preceded by a Fed tightening cycle have a 100% hit rate in signaling recession ahead,” Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at Piper Sandler & Co., said in a note. In contrast, the last four so-called soft landings were preceded by easier…