The Bitcoin (BTC) price has powered back into the mid-$61,000s in wake of a softer-than-expected US labor market report which has boosted hopes that the Fed cuts interest rates more than once before the end of 2024.
❖ US Labor Apr Nonfarm Payrolls +175K; Consensus +240K
❖ US Apr Unemployment Rate 3.9%; Consensus 3.8%
❖ US Apr Average Hourly Earnings +0.20%, or +$0.07 to $34.75; Over Year +3.92%
❖ US Apr Private Sector Payrolls +167K and Government Payrolls +8K
❖ US Apr Average…
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) May 3, 2024
The US economy added 175,000 jobs in April, below the Wall Street consensus for a 240,000 job gain. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate jumped to 3.9%, above the expected 3.8%.
As per the CME, the odds that the Fed will have cut interest rates more than once before the end of 2024 rose to around 62% from around 50% one day ago.
And traders upping their rate cut bets for 2024 has put US yields and the US dollar under pressure.
The DXY dropped back under 105 for the first time since April 10th. US 10-year yields, meanwhile, fell back to 4.5% from above 4.7% last week. The 2-year yield was last at 4.8%, down from above 5% just three days ago.
Easing financial conditions helped the S&P 500 hit its highest in over two weeks above 5,100. And the improving macro backdrop has unsurprisingly injected bullish momentum back into the crypto market.
It remains to be seen whether the Bitcoin price can break out of its recent bearish trend channel. To confirm a breakout of this downtrend, a push above $64,000 would be needed.
Where Is the Bitcoin Price Headed Next?
Softer-than-expected US jobs data caused a major bullish reaction in traditional financial markets and Bitcoin. Investors seem to have interpreted the data as increasingly the likelihood that the rise in inflationary pressures witnessed in Q1 2024 will be temporary.
But that’s a risky assumption to make based on purely one jobs report alone, that, quite frankly, wasn’t even weak.
TIMIRAOS SAYS US JOBS DATA NOT GAMECHANGER; NO ‘UNEXPECTED’ WEAKNESS
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) May 3, 2024
The Fed emphasized earlier this week that it will wait for more progress on inflation before cutting interest rates.
Markets could easily be getting ahead of themselves betting that a slightly softer-than-expected inflation report is the start of a new trend of labor market weakness that will bring down inflation and permit the Fed to start cutting rates faster this year.
If markets are getting ahead of themselves, then the Bitcoin price is at risk of correcting. Bitcoin traders need to remember that spot Bitcoin ETFs have been experiencing outflows recently.
Moreover, post-halving rallies don’t normally get going until 4-6 months post-halving. The near-term Bitcoin outlook remains towards consolidation below the all-time highs printed back in March.
There is formidable resistance in the $63,000s in the form of the top of the current downward trend channel.
Should Bitcoin fail to break above this area, a continued drop towards $53,000 support is likely.
Dip-Buying Opportunity
A retest here would be a very attractive area for bulls to get back involved.
A drop to the low $50,000s would mark a 30% pullback from March highs. During past bullish cycles, Bitcoin pullbacks normally haven’t exceeded 30% by much.
And long-term fundamentals remain very bullish for BTC. The question isn’t if the Fed will start cutting interest rates, but how soon.
When cuts do eventually arrive, that will be a major tailwind for the Bitcoin price.
Moreover, spot Bitcoin ETFs are expected to continue to attract significant inflows over the long-term. Most institutions are yet to start buying as they stay on the sidelines or conduct cautious due diligence.
Wall Street giant BlackRock is taking on a major educational role with clients regarding the benefits of investing in BTC.
Game theory says a country will print money to buy bitcoin
BlackRock knows this and is quickly orange pilling governments
their sales pitch is pretty easy:
if you’re the first country to print money to buy bitcoin you’ll be rich
if you’re last, no one will trade you bitcoin… pic.twitter.com/PniQQJhMdc
— Crypto Tea (@CryptoTea_) May 3, 2024
Elsewhere, as already noted, post-halving tailwinds usually don’t come in until 4-6 months after the halving.
So Bitcoin’s next major rally might not come until later this year. Now could be a great time for investors to be DCAing into the asset.
Disclaimer: Crypto is a high-risk asset class. This article is provided for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. You could lose all of your capital.
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