This just in, Americans are lazy, and getting lazier. That has implications for everything from AI to economic growth to how to construct an optimal stock portfolio.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its American Time Use Survey this past week. It showed that one-third of Americans worked from home in 2022, up from a quarter, or 25%, in 2019. No surprise there. But the survey also found that Americans working full time from home worked 2.5 hours less a day than Americans at the office.
“It’s no wonder labor force productivity has been negative for the past five straight quarters amid office occupancy that remains at sub-50 percent in the largest US cities even +3 years after lockdowns,” writes DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas.
Overall, the total civilian population worked for an average of 3.23 hours a day in 2022 down from 3.26 hours a day in 2019. The U.S. is 1% lazier. That number, given by the BLS, is the total population. Don’t forget, babies don’t work.
Economics is complicated, but labor productivity is essentially the basis for economic gains. The economy is measured in dollars, but the dollar is just a unit of account. More output per worker is how living standards improve.
The findings will give management teams some momentum to bring workers back to the office.
Tesla
(TSLA) CEO Elon Musk called coming to work a moral issue in a recent CNBC interview with David Faber. Musk’s point is line workers assembling his cars can’t work from home. Engineers, designers, and support staff shouldn’t work from home either unless there is a very good reason.
In a strange way, coming back to work is like an economic stimulus package. If people go back to the office, at a 2019 rate, and work 8.2 hours a day instead of the at-home 5.7 hours a day, the economy has just added roughly 800 million weeks of work, an 8% bump.
It’s all vaguely theoretical, but improving output per person can manifest itself in lower prices and/or more output. Both combat recession fears.
Workers might find themselves commuting for another reason beyond management prodding. AI is coming for some jobs.
AI replacing some labor would represent another productivity boost. The gains from AI might be overstated at this point.
“Generative AI’s long-run effect on productivity and economic growth may look more like an S-curve than a straight line,” adds Colas in his report. “Simply because the substitution of [AI] capital for labor will take considerable time before it really moves the needle.”
He also surveyed his clients about stocks that could outperform in the second half of 2022 based on AI optimism.
Microsoft
(MSFT) was the winner. Even if the reality doesn’t match the hype that won’t stop traders from pushing up Microsoft shares.
As far as what Americans were doing with the time not spent working, TV watching stayed flat, socializing dropped, and gaming increased.
A rise in socializing from going back to work could be a tailwind for shares of, say, beer and wine producers and distributors such as
Anheuser-Busch InBev
(BUD) and
Constellation Brands
(STZ).
Gaming stocks could see a headwind if the increase in socialization comes at the expense of the Xbox.
Activision Blizzard
(ATVI) and
Electronic Arts
(EA) stocks have gained 41% and 17% respectively since the end of 2019. The
S&P 500
is up about 33% over the same span.
Of course, people could choose to watch less TV which would be a new headwind for streaming services.
Netflix
(NFLX) shares were an early pandemic winner rising from about $329 a share at the end of 2019 to more than $690 a share in late 2021. But shares are back at about $416 apiece.
The pros of more productivity, however, should easily outweigh the cons.
Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com
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