Target
stock could fall further when student loan repayments start up again, says one J.P. Morgan analyst who lowered his rating on the stock.
Christopher Horvers downgraded his rating on Target (ticker: TGT) to Neutral from Overweight and cut his price target to $144 from $182 on Thursday. He wrote in a research note that a resurgence of student loan payments will add even more pressure to the stock after recent political controversies and consumer challenges have hit it hard.
“TGT over-indexes to the millennial customer and, should student loan payments come back on, the company is more exposed than others in our coverage,” Horvers wrote.
Target didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Student loan payments have been put on hold since the beginning of the pandemic. The Supreme Court is reviewing lower-court rulings that are preventing the Department of Education from implementing the previously announced student debt relief of $10,000 per borrower.
According to the bill to raise the debt ceiling that passed the House on Wednesday, student loan repayments are scheduled to resume by Aug. 29. The debt deal also blocks the education secretary from lengthening the pause on federal student loan payments without congressional approval.
Target shoppers are mostly millennials, according to data from consumer data provider Numerator. That age demographic is heavily impacted by student loans. Horvers argues that those shoppers will have less access to disposable income as they resume making monthly high-interest payments, and that could hit Target’s earnings.
“With 51% of its sales derived from discretionary categories (apparel, hardlines, and home), 49% derived from more consumable categories (which are facing disinflation), accelerating share of wallet reversion occurring, and student loans potentially coming due, we see the risk of downward earnings revisions rising,” Horvers wrote.
Shares of Target have fallen for 10 consecutive days, which is the stock’s longest losing streak since February 2000, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The stock was down 2.1%, at $128.24, in recent trading.
Write to Angela Palumbo at [email protected]
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