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Rivian Beats Earnings Estimates, Raises Guidance. The Stock Is Falling.

The EV start-up
Rivian Automotive
delivered second-quarter results that beat Wall Street estimates and raised its forecast for production for the full year. Shares were falling in after-hours trading anyway.

The numbers look solid. Some profit-taking might be to blame.

Tuesday evening, Rivian (ticker: RIVN) reported a per-share loss of $1.08 from sales of $1.1 billion, while Wall Street had been looking for a per-share loss of $1.43 from sales of $1.1 billion. A year ago, Rivian lost $1.62 a share from sales of just $95 million.

For the full year, Rivian now expects to produce 52,000 vehicles. It said in May it expected to produce 50,000.

Shares were up just after the results were released. The stock has given up gains and is down more than 3%, at $24, in after-hours trading. Rivian stock gained 2.1% in regular Tuesday trading, while the
S&P 500
and
Nasdaq Composite
fell 0.4% and 0.8%, respectively.

Numbers look pretty good, but starting points matter. Rivian shares have been hot lately. Through Tuesday’s trading, Rivian stock was up almost 80% over the past three months. With a run like that it can take a lot to keep investors enthusiastic.

The production guidance hike is good news. It may have been expected though. Rivian made 13,992 electric vehicles in the second quarter and sold 12,640 units. Those numbers were both roughly 10% better than Wall Street expected.

If Rivian simply maintained its second-quarter production rate in the third and fourth quarters, it would have ended up making about 51,000 units. The new guidance implies slightly higher quarter-to-quarter production.

Rivian used about $1.6 billion in cash in the second quarter. Wall Street was looking for cash use of about $1.5 billion. The company used about $1.8 billion of cash in the first quarter.

Wall Street projects cash used to total about $2.8 billion for the third and fourth quarters combined. Things look as expected, but investors would like to see costs coming down.

Rivian did reduce its full-year adjusted Ebitda loss to $4.2 billion from prior guidance of $4.3 billion. It’s a small change, but a change in the right direction.

Ebitda is short for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.

Rivian ended the second quarter with roughly $10.2 billion in cash on its books, down from about $12 billion at the end of the first quarter. That is enough to last for a couple of years based on current usage rates. Wall Street, and investors, expect Rivian to need more capital eventually. Positive full-year free cash flow isn’t projected by the Street until 2027.

Investors and analysts can discuss costs and production when management hosts a conference call at 5 p.m. Eastern time to discuss the results.

Write to Al Root at [email protected]

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This article was written by Follow Manika is a macroeconomist with over 20 years of experience in industries including investment management, stock broking, investment...