By James Glynn
SYDNEY–Employment in Australia is currently above the levels that are consistent with inflation falling back to target, Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Gov. Michele Bullock said Tuesday.
In a speech to a business forum, Ms. Bullock laid out the case for why the unemployment rate will have to rise from its current 50-year lows if the inflation rate is to return to the target range of 2% to 3% over the coming years.
“Employment is above what we would consider to be consistent with our inflation target,” she said.
The comments come as recent job-market data show that employers continue to hire vigorously despite the RBA announcing 400 basis points of interest-rate increases in a little over a year.
The RBA expects the unemployment rate to rise from 3.6% currently to around 4.5% by mid-2025, a level it believes will still be close to estimates of full employment.
“One of the channels through which higher interest rates work to bring down inflation is by reducing the demand for goods and services and hence overall demand for labor…Labor-market conditions will invariably soften as inflation is contained,” Ms. Bullock added.
Achieving price stability over time is a prerequisite for ensuring the job market remains strong over time, she said.
The remarks follow the earlier release of minutes of the RBA’s June 6 policy meeting, which highlighted growing concerns about wages growth and the consequences for inflation.
The minutes said the decision to raise the official cash rate at the meeting was “finely balanced,” but there was clear signalling that the bank is worrying that wage pressures are building.
The decision to tighten monetary policy settings further this month followed news of a 5.7% rise in the minimum wage by the Fair Work Commission, which exceeded the RBA’s expectations.
“This was higher than the expectations embedded in staff forecasts and would add directly to the wage price index in the third quarter,” the minutes showed.
The rate at which broader enterprise-wide wage agreements are rising is also adding to doubts around wages growth, according to the minutes.
“It would be concerning if wages across a broad range of jobs were to become implicitly indexed to high inflation,” the RBA minutes said.
Write to James Glynn at james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ
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