At a scientific conference beginning Friday,
Eli Lilly
and
Novo Nordisk
will show off their next-generation weight-loss drugs. Wall Street—and Hollywood—are already mad for their existing weight-loss products. In the next few days, the pharma rivals will present early data on drugs that could prove more powerful.
Shares of Lilly (ticker: LLY) and Novo (NOVO) have ridden wild demand for a new class of drugs called incretins, that allow patients to lose 15% to 20% of their body weight. At a recent $453, Lilly stock trades at an eye-watering 50 times this year’s earnings forecast, while Novo stock goes for 30 times earnings, at $160.
Developed as diabetes treatments, Novo’s Ozempic and Lilly’s Mounjaro have been in short supply as doctors prescribe them for patients who can’t get their hands on Wegovy—the Novo incretin specifically formulated for weight loss. With much of the developed world suffering from obesity, the category is expected to become one of the pharmaceutical industry’s biggest sellers.
That’s why weight-loss studies will be headline events at this weekend’s scientific conference of the American Diabetes Association in San Diego. Guggenheim’s Seamus Fernandez expects positive impact from a Friday afternoon session in which Lilly discusses the 12.6% weight loss achieved after six months on its orforglipron pill. The company hopes that weight loss will reach 15%, after the Phase 2 trial reaches nine months. That would be in line with the performance of Novo’s weekly injectable, Wegovy.
Sunday, Novo will present Phase 3 study results for its pill form of the active ingredient in Wegovy. Novo tested the pill as a treatment for Type 2 diabetes, and for obesity. Fernandez thinks Novo’s data will be a big deal. Early data on another incretin pill will appear Sunday, from
Structure Therapeutics
(GPCR).
While pills try to catch up to the performance of current injectables, the drug companies are aiming to push to new levels of weight loss with next-generation injectables. On Friday, researchers will discuss Phase 2 data on Novo’s two-drug combination CagriSema. Sunday, Lilly will present two Phase 2 studies of its triple-drug combo called Retatrutide. Lilly plans to start its Phase 3 study of Retatrutide soon.
Along with all the weight-loss headlines, there will be important diabetes results at the diabetes meeting, too. On Sunday,
Vertex Pharmaceuticals
(VRTX) will present updated data from its test of cell transplants as a cure for Type 1 diabetes. Companies that sell devices to monitor glucose and pump insulin will hold analyst meetings, including
DexCom
(DXCM),
Tandem
Diabetes Care (TNDM),
Medtronic
(MDT), and
Insulet
(PODD). Baird analyst Jeff Johnson thinks Tandem may launch new products to challenge its rival Insulet.
Write to Bill Alpert at william.alpert@barrons.com
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