On June 4th, Oracle
ORCL
and Meta Platforms were recommended. Since that time Oracle has risen by 8.23% and Meta Platforms by 6.57% In that time period the S&P rose by 2.72% and the NASDAQ
NDAQ
100 by 3.37%. Let us look at the current picture for these stocks.
Oracle is very overbought both weekly and monthly. However, note that the relative strength in the third strip shows that a 10-year relative downtrend has been reversed to the upside. This is the strongest piece of this picture. This is constructive for longer-term holders who are measured against a benchmark. The monthly histogram reveals that the peak of seasonal strength in June is past. The next two months have been flat to down. From July 15th through July 24th price has been up only 38% of the time. From the 15th to August 31st, Oracle has risen 43% of the time. The monthly cycle has hit a trough. A weak rally is projected into early August. The prospects through August are bearish. Take profits or underweight the stock through July. The share price could retreat to $100-$105.
Oracle Daily, Weekly, Monthly Graph
Oracle Monthly Histogram of Expected Return
Oracle Monthly Graph
This stock is also overbought but less so than Oracle. July has been the third strongest month to hold the stock based on a small 12-year sample. The monthly cycle falls into mid-August. The likely result will be a flat to moderately rising stock into mid-August. A rally is then due into late August. The stock can be market-weighted.
Meta Platforms Daily, Weekly, Monthly
Meta Platforms Monthly Histogram of Expected Return
Meta Platforms Monthly Cycle
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