The coming week is post-OPEX week which has a bearish bias as can be seen in the histogram below. The 10-day moving average of breadth is now overbought. The 4320-4350 area is support and is a downside target.
The technology leaders are likely to correct before moving higher. Stock leadership is spreading out, so most stocks are likely to retreat less than the leaders.
Post OPEX Week in June
We look to the S&P 400 which had been lagging. This index has been recovering in relative terms over the last few weeks. Arrow Electronics is ranked second in the Cycles Research screens. As graphed below, Arrow is in uptrends both relative and absolute. The monthly histogram shows that the stock typically rallies from June into July. From June 27th through August 1st, the shares have risen about 72% of the time over the last 42 years. The stock is likely to be trading in the $145-$150 level by late July.
Arrow Daily Graph
Arrow Monthly Histogram
Urban Outfitters is also highly rated. The stock gapped up on its earnings announcement. The monthly histogram shows the seasonal period of strength from June through August. The $35 to $40 range is likely the next stop. Relative strength has been basing since 2020, a sound development for further relative strength throughout the year.
Urban Outfitters Daily Graph
Urban Outfitters Monthly Graph
Urban Outfitters Monthly Histogram
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