Bitcoin
and other cryptocurrencies continued to languish at depressed levels on Monday in what has become one of the quietest periods for crypto in recent history. Past trends suggest prices could soon fall—and this week may usher in a fresh catalyst.
The price of
Bitcoin
has retreated less than 1% over the past 24 hours to just above $29,000. The largest digital asset continues to inch further away from the psychologically important $30,000 level, which has formed the bottom end of a range up to $31,000 that provided support for Bitcoin prices for months.
“With Bitcoin’s short-term realized volatility at historically low levels, the market seems to be in a ‘wait and see’ mood,” said Yuya Hasegawa, an analyst at crypto exchange Bitbank. “The next stop could be around $28,000,and given the market’s heightened concerns … recovery above $30,000 in the next couple of days is likely off the table.”
Digital assets have fallen into a lull in recent months—a period of stagnant trading that has emerged as one of the quietest stretches in recent crypto memory. While history suggests a boring stage like this one is likely to precede the next bullish tear, it’s no promise for how things will play out in the short or medium term.
“The third quarter is historically Bitcoin’s weakest so things might well get worse in the coming weeks before they get better,” said Antoni Trenchev, co-founder and managing partner at crypto lender Nexo. “On the downside, Bitcoin can fall to $25,000 and it wouldn’t be a travesty but ideally it needs to stay above the 200-week moving average around $27,300 as it tends to tell us if Bitcoin is in a bullish or bearish trend.”
The days ahead could bring a fresh catalyst to crypto markets in the form of U.S. consumer-price index (CPI) inflation data, due Thursday. The data also are likely to move the
Dow Jones Industrial Average
and
S&P 500.
U.S. inflation and the resulting pathway for Federal Reserve monetary policy has a similar bearing on cryptos as they do stocks—both of which are rate-sensitive risk assets—so the CPI print may move the needle, though traders aren’t getting their hopes up.
“It’s noticeable that Bitcoin—unlike traditional finance—hasn’t benefited as much in recent months from decelerating U.S. inflation and the prospect of an imminent end to the U.S. tightening cycle, further evidence we’re in a summer crypto lull,” Trenchev said.
Beyond Bitcoin,
Ether
—the second-largest crypto—was down less than 1% to $1,830. Smaller cryptos or altcoins exhibited more of the same, with
Cardano
and
Polygon
both slumping 1%. Memecoins were weaker, with
Dogecoin
down 2% and
Shiba Inu
shedding 4%.
Write to Jack Denton at jack.denton@barrons.com
Read the full article here