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Bitcoin Price Makes Run for $31,000. Why the Jobs Report Could Bring a Big Move.

Bitcoin
was rising modestly Thursday, with the largest digital asset holding onto gains from a recent rally but in need of more catalysts to continue the momentum.

The price of Bitcoin has risen less than 1% over the past 24 hours to above $30,800, edging closer to the recent high near $31,500 reached in April—the largest digital asset’s highest point since June 2022. Bitcoin’s rally above the psychologically key $30,000 mark last month came after applications by
BlackRock
(ticker: BLK) and others for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), raising hopes of new retail and institutional interest in crypto. While the status of those applications remains up in the air, sentiment among traders has continued to skew bullish.

“Bitcoin looks to be consolidating at around $30,000, having recently been propelled upwards by all these spot Bitcoin applications,” said Vineeth Bhuvanagiri, managing director of Emurgo, the commercial arm of the Cardano blockchain. “These applications by BlackRock and Fidelity, among others, are certainly seen as validation for Bitcoin and the broader digital asset industry … On the other hand, I don’t think we’ve entered bull-market territory yet for the broader digital asset industry.”

There have been few catalysts to move cryptos in recent days, with quiet across wider markets amid the July Fourth holiday in the U.S. But Friday could hold the key to the next leg higher or lower with the U.S. jobs report on tap. It’s likely to swing Bitcoin, just as it would the
Dow Jones Industrial Average
and
S&P 500.

The jobs report is among the last major economic data releases before the Federal Reserve’s next decision on interest rates later this month. The Fed’s campaign of inflation-fighting interest-rate hikes were a major headwind for risk-sensitive assets in 2022, but optimism that inflation is cooling and that the central bank can become more accommodative has helped propel Bitcoin higher in 2023.

Minutes released Wednesday from the Fed’s last policy-setting committee showed near-unanimous support for holding rates steady in June, but raised the prospect of another hike this month. The jobs report, a major indicator of how hot the U.S. economy is running, could help solidify bets on the near-term outlook for rates, and in turn swing cryptos and stocks.

Beyond Bitcoin,
Ether
—the second-largest crypto—was falling less than 1% to $1,925. Smaller cryptos, or altcoins, were weaker, with
Cardano
and
Polygon
each down 2%. Memecoins were also muted, with
Dogecoin
and
Shiba Inu
each shedding 1%.

Write to Jack Denton at [email protected]

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This article was written by Follow Leo Nelissen is an analyst focusing on major economic developments related to supply chains, infrastructure, and commodities. He...