Apple iPhone 15 Pro Demand May Be Fading: J.P. Morgan

There is greater likelihood the “mix of sales within iPhone 15 Series is tracking weaker than prior launches, with a higher proportion of volumes being allocated to the low-end models,” he wrote, saying that adds to “demand concerns.”

In midday trading Monday, Apple shares were up marginally at $177.61, recovering from an early loss.

Lead times—the amount of time it takes for consumers to get the phone they want—are seen as an indication of demand. The stronger the demand for high-end, expensive phones, the better for investors, given that those devices off higher profit margins.

Data for the fourth week after the phones were launched, tracking delivery and pickup information around the world, showed lead times for high-end iPhone 15 models dropped to 32 days from 37 the prior week, Chatterjee wrote. The comparable period for high-end iPhone 14 models was 36 days.

Lead times for low-end iPhone 15 models fell to 15 days from 17 days the prior week.

The iPhone 15 and 15 Plus start at $799 and $899, respectively, and include the A16 Bionic chip from last year’s Pro models, along with a slightly better camera. The iPhone 15 Pro and 15 Pro Max start at $999 and $1,199 and come with the new A17 Pro processor, an Action button that replaces the Mute switch, and titanium casing.

“The decline in lead times over the past week, following a steep decline in the week prior, is reinforcing the likelihood of elevated lead times for the high-end iPhone 15 models immediately following the launch having been driven by early order momentum and/or supply availability,” he wrote.

Chatterjee has an Overweight rating on Apple shares and $230 price target. He didn’t change his rating or forecast. Apple stock is up 36% this year, outstripping the
Nasdaq Composite’s
28% gain.

Write to Tae Kim at tae.kim@barrons.com