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Novo Nordisk Halts Ozempic Kidney Trial. Why It’s Bad for DaVita Stock.

Novo Nordisk’s
Ozempic already is threatening to disrupt a range of industries via its weight-loss benefits. Now it looks set to threaten companies which treat kidney failure.

Novo Nordisk’s
(ticker: NVO) Ozempic and Wegovy are examples of a new range of drugs known as GLP-1 receptor agonists. Originally developed as a therapy for diabetes patients, they are now poised to revolutionize obesity treatment in the U.S. and beyond. 

However, scientists are still working on other uses for the drugs. Novo Nordisk said late Tuesday that Ozempic showed sufficient success in a trial for kidney failure in diabetes patients that it would stop the study early. 

Novo Nordisk said the decision to stop the trial early was based on a recommendation from an independent data monitoring committee, after it met pre-specified criteria for efficacy. Full results are expected during the first half year of 2024.

Analysts at Jefferies said the addressable market size for people suffering from chronic kidney disease with type 2 diabetes could be 13.6 million patients across the U.S. and European Union.

American depositary receipts of Novo Nordisk were up 3.8% on Wednesday. 
Eli Lilly
(LLY), which is seeking approval to market its own GLP-1 obesity treatment tirzepatide in the U.S., was up 3%, making it the second-best performer on the day in the
S&P 500.

Good news for Novo Nordisk was looking like bad news for dialysis-services providers.
DaVita
(DVA) shares were down 17%, making it the worst performer in the S&P 500 and putting it on track for its worst one-day performance in nearly a year, according to Dow Jones Market Data, while
Baxter International
(BAX) dropped 9%.

“The body of evidence to support GLP-1 use, over and above weight loss and blood glucose control, continues to grow,” Citi analysts wrote in a note. 

The analysts raised their target price on Novo Nordisk stock to 745 Danish kroner ($106) from 600 kroner previously. The stock was up 4.1% at 676.80 kroner in local trading. 

Write to Adam Clark at [email protected]

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