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The 2023 Recession Is Still Likely Coming

Co-produced by Austin Rogers.

There is always a lot of noise in the financial media about the state of the economy, but most of it is, to quote Shakespeare, “sound and fury signifying nothing.”

So, let’s look at some data

AFFLUENT PAYCHECK-TO-PAYCHECK
Spends mostly on services and durable goods Spends mostly on essential goods
Ample savings Little to no savings
Regularly able to save from income Able to save little to nothing from income
Little to no consumer debt Rising consumer debt, e.g. car payment, credit cards, etc.
Likely to own home Likely to rent
Spends less than 20% of income on housing Spends over 30% of income on housing
Well-educated and connected with successful people Little education and disconnected from successful people
Directly or indirectly owns stocks Little to no exposure to the stock market
Student loan payments nonexistent or negligible, likely to come from savings Student loan payments likely to eat into other spending

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