How To Protect Bull’s Nest Egg In Their Late Age

The best way to protect the nest egg for old people (age 66 and up)

The 5-Year-Investment Plan for old people is Introduced.

The Weekly Update of the Current 9-week Uptrend.

Retirement investments are like nest egg on shoulder of bull

Introduction

If someone happens to be 66-years old this year, I and “she/he” are 18-years apart: 84 and 66 now. We call the person “Six (6)“.

I introduced four age Cohorts: 1) Cohort # 1 (26 – 45), 2) Cohort # 2 (46 – 65), 3) Cohort # 3 (66 – 85), and 4) Cohort # 4 (86 – 105) in my article, titled, “Stacking Investment Packs Or Going On Roll-Off,” where some numbers in the parentheses are adjusted to avoid overlaps.

The adult life cycle, 80 years, is broken down in the above four Cohorts, and the focus was in Cohort # 1 and # 2. in my previous work.

The Focus

The article changes the angle to Cohorts # 3 and # 4 from Cohorts # 1 and # 2.

The main vehicle of protection is to go with ‘Stacking Investment Packs [IPs] and the 5-Year-Investment Plan [5YIP] (60 Months), and Investment Capital (IC).

Reintroduce The Great Market Crash [GMC} Watch, which plays in the somewhat downgraded role for Me and Six with the 5YIP.

The numerical Illustrations with Various Assumptions are the next installment, as Part II.

I will graduate from Cohort # 3 (85 – 66) next year and be a freshman in Cohort # 4 (105 – 86). Six (6) is a freshman in Cohort # 3 (85 – 66) now.

The 5-Year Investment Plan

In Cohort # 3 and # 4, all retirement assets are liquidating:

Six (6) starts immediately, and will do gradually, and at least 30% should be done within the first year.

Six (6) invests 0.5% every month for 5 years (60 months), and then without additional monthly investment, the Investment Capital [IC} as of the end of 5 years (which is 30% as investing money plus earned interests), is invested continuously for 15 years. Six (6) will be very rich in age 85.

In the following year, I, as the freshman in Cohort # 4 (105 – 86), I start the “5YIP” by investing 1% every month, and go thru the same process which Six (6) did. I do not know my life cycle but every penny goes to my scholarship fund.

A Simple and Easy Great Market Crash [GMC] Watch

In a year, far way back, my article used “Black Swan [BS]” instead of “GMC”. The term “BS’ triggered “Word Games” instead of “discussions of the text” very extensively. I and some word-game players exchanged more than three-dozen comments.

Consequently, I have used the term “Great Crash” in several articles. Now I invented “GMC” in the article.

My article would be one of the most reliable investing strategies not only for its primary target investors who are in mid-60s or older but also for the younger by adjusting the strategy a little bit as recommended in the last part of it.

The main message of the article is that the strategy would help you overcome your…emotions. As a long-term investor on the time horizon anywhere between five and seven years, what would be the [nest concern] to you? Perhaps it would be a Great Recession (“GR”) like the one in the previous one, started in December 2007, according to the dating of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which is called the NBER recession.

The question is how to watch “GMC” which follows “GR”, not by any garden-variety recession [GVR]. As a Bull, we do not care about “GVR”, but We must be deeply concerned about “GR” and “GMC” which would wipe out our Bull’s Retirement Assets more than a half.

How to Watch “GR” and “GMC”

What NBER Business Cycles Dating Committee and other Business-Cycle Models are doing is not far away from the work of Geoffrey H. Moore.

Moore’s work is also not quite different from the works of Burns and Mitchell in the 1920s and 1930s when Burns and Mitchell submitted a number of series to Henry Morgenthau, Jr., the Secretary of the Treasury in 1937.

The list was published in 1938; The list was revised in 1950, 1960, and 1966.The list originated the system of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators which are used by NBER, Conference Board, BCD (Business Control Digest), and many Business Cycles Models.

“The questions are: Why the list of indicators developed about 80 years ago is still useful and why some indicators are a member of the current business cycles models. What the NBER Dating Committee cannot date turning points timely with so many staff and so may series and well-developed computer models. Why the Fed cannot forecast the economy and business cycles more accurately.

The simple answer is that business cycles and economic activities on the aggregated level are extremely complex and delicate because multi-level interactions among all industries, all different regions, and all sectors with different time lags to adjust the impacts of economic policies and other geopolitical disturbances, and natural damages, and so on.

The challenge on determining durations, amplitudes, and scopes of business cycles never has been abated. It has been strengthened from cycle to cycle. Burns and Mitchell defined that “a cycle consist of expansions…followed by…recessions; this sequence of changes is recurrent but not periodic: in duration business cycles vary from more than one year to ten or twelve years; they are not divisible into shorter cycles of similar character with amplitudes approximately their own.” (Geoffrey H. Moore, Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, (Ballinger: NBER, 1980),

What Should We Do?

Wise sailors prepare for coming storms when sea is calm, so do prudent investors when the nine-weeks old Uptrend, starting on March 31st, has been confirmed every week and month to month, and today (Jun. 2nd) the market surged.

Step 1: Tracking GR by the negative two Quarters (“N2Q”).

You should check GDPNOW of the Atlanta Fed or Nowcast of the NY Fed or both. You may take either estimate or the average of both. Currently any negative estimates for two quarters in a row are not anticipated within a couple of years. Even when we have a N2Q, don’t jump to a conclusion that we have a GR. That’s why the following two steps are needed.

Step 2: Examining GR by the inverted yield curve (“IYC”).

My article explained that the IYC would lead a recession in several months ahead. All you have to do is simply to view the Treasury yield curve in the Wall Street Journal at least every month.

Step 3: Accounting GR by the coupled Equity and Bond prices.

The necessary and sufficient condition of “GR” and a “GMC” is that stock prices and bond prices are coupled with a sharp plunge of both, and a surge of trading volumes.

Step 4: Monitoring a Down Trend by the “Paper and Pencil Only” [PPO] Approach.

The “PPO” Approach has tracked the current Uptrend successfully for two months. We do not know when the U.S. economy will peak and start to decline. When the down momentum and down trend will start, the “PPO” Approach will trace the “GMC” and the “GR”.

The Two-Months-Old Current Uptrend, Beginning on March 31st, has Gained Another Stronger Footing – as of June 02, 2023

The “PPO” Approach with a minimum help of EXCEL demonstrated a clear track on the coming up-/down-momentum and up/downtrend which has not been detected by clever algorithm (i.e., moving average) or sophisticated graphics or charts.

By the PPO Approach, it is a bit edge on tracking the current Uptrend, started two months ago, and the Uptrend has been confirmed every week and every month.

The “P” is a plus and the “m” is “minus” so the S&P 500 daily closing prices are classified by either “P” or “m”.

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

Table 1 counts 1) 1″m”/1″P”was 12 vs. 6 (“m” had EDGE), 2) 2″m”/2″P” was: 4 vs. 7 (“P” had BIG EDGE), 3″m”/3″P” was: 1 vs. 5 (“P” had BIG EDGE), 4″m”/4″P” was 1 vs. 1 (EVEN).

“P” added another BIG EDGE on 2″m”/2″P (4 vs. 6) on the top of one BIG EDGE on 3″m”/3″p” (! vs. 5), making 2 BIG EDGE.

In Table 2, “P” had 3 votes out of 4 in Apr., and 2 vote in May., Jun. “W1” 1, While “m” got 1 vote out of 4 in Apr., 2 in May,

The “P” vs. “m” was 6 vs. 3.

As a result, “P” had not only a significant EDGE over “m” but also still favorable votes (6 vs. 3) over “m” on Friday.

Since $3,970.25 on Feb. 28, the S&P 500 Index has steadily advanced to $4,109.31 on Mar. 31 (+3.50%), $4,169.48 on Apr. 28 (+1.46%), and $4,179.83 on May 31 (+0.25%).

Check this outstanding performance of the S&P 500 Index with Yahoo Finance.

The Conclusion

The Adult (26 and up) Life Cycles can be Marked in two Distinguishable Milestone: 1) Ascending (or Accumulation) Era [AE] and 2) Descending (or Tapering) Era [DE]. The former has two age Cohorts: # 1 (26 – 45) and # 2 (46 – 65). The latter has Cohort # 3 (66 – 85) and # 4 (86 – 105)

Initially, these four cohorts were made in one of my articles, simply based upon the author’s age from beginning and break down each 20 years. Of course, these cohorts are arbitrary, but in the article, myself (84) and Six (6) have some interesting aspect about handling our retirement assets, as I am outgoing from # 3 and Six (6) is just coming into # 3.

It is surely one of the completely unprepared businesses as an individual, like me as well as Six (6).

I hope the article may serve our age group in a way to protect properly our retirement assets which we made during our entire lives.