Markets

Interest Rate Hike Back On The Table

Published

May 31, 2023

Key Takeaways

House Set To Vote On Debt Ceiling
Oil Prices Falling
Chances Of June Rate Hike Rising

As investors await word that the debt ceiling deal passes Congress, stocks started the week slowly. The S&P 500 was unchanged while the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.3%. Chip stocks have been the main market driver of late and we’ll see if that continues.

For the month, the Nasdaq 100 has gained nearly 8.5%, putting it on track for its best May since 2005. While past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns, it is worth noting the index added another 11% to finish out that year. This most recent surge in the tech sector has been led by chipmakers such as Nvidia, which tacked on another 3% on Tuesday, helping to take the overall sector higher. For the year, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF is up over 45%.

With a deal on the debt ceiling looking likely to pass in the House, markets have begun pivoting away from that concern and returning attention to interest rates. Following the May meeting of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC), markets were forecasting a near 100% certainty that rates would be left alone when the Fed meets in June. However, not unlike a recurrent case of Shingles, it would appear the threat of a hike has returned.

Just last week, chances of a rate increase had climbed to well over 30%. As of Wednesday morning, that probability now stands at nearly 61%. Members of the Fed are speaking throughout the week and yesterday, Fed President Mester said she’s sees no compelling reason to wait on another hike. The next FOMC meeting is just two weeks away and this is certainly a story worth watching.

Elsewhere, crude oil prices have come under pressure of late. After nearly reaching $75 a barrel just last week, prices have since plummeted. In premarket, oil is trading just over $67, down 3.3% from Tuesday’s close. Unfortunately, we’ve yet to see that drop carry over into gas prices where the average price for a gallon of gas has hardly moved in the past month.

Finally, after the close today we’ll get earnings from Nordstrom
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and Salesforce. Shares of Salesforce have been strong all year, up 65% year-to-date. Meantime, Nordstrom has struggled along with much of the retail sector. After peaking in early February at just over $27, the stock has since fallen nearly 41%. We’ll also get earnings from Macy’s tomorrow morning before the open. Much like Nordstrom, this stock is also down well over 40% since hitting a high of $25 in February. As always, I would stick with your investing plans and long term objectives.

tastytrade, Inc. commentary for educational purposes only. This content is not, nor is intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any investment product or strategy is suitable for any person.

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